Chapter 1: Introduction 

The Saguenay flood of 1996, the Red River flood of 1997, and the 1998 ice storm dominated the lives of several million Canadians and resulted in unprecedented numbers of weather-related insurance claims. Weather affects our daily lives, sometimes dramatically, as illustrated by these recent extreme weather events. Climate is different from weather: climate refers to average meteorological conditions – temperature, precipitation, and wind patterns, amongst other variables. But climate, too, can change, although the changes are apparent only over long periods of time.  

Historically, changes in climate have occurred at a slow enough pace that humanity has been able to adapt to them without major disruptions. There is strong evidence, however, that climate change will accelerate during the coming century at rates beyond our historical ability to adapt. The predicted impacts will include not only more frequent extreme weather events, but also long-term environmental shifts that will profoundly affect economies and lifestyles around the world.  For example, the main effect of climate change is likely to be on Canada’s water resources. 

During the course of its last study, the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry heard much evidence from farmers across Canada about the 2001 drought, and how badly it had affected them. How will Canadians cope if such droughts occur more frequently in areas where before they were exceptional incidents?  From November 2002 to May 2003, the Committee studied the effects of climate change on Canada’s agriculture, forests, and rural communities, with an emphasis on how these can best adapt to a changing climate. This summary highlights the Committee’s findings. The overview of chapter 2 provides some background on the issue of climate change, while the overviews of chapters 3 to 7 summarize the research and evidence gathered by the Committee on the potential effects of climate change on agriculture, forests, water, rural communities and Aboriginal people. Chapter 8 identifies areas for government action to help rural Canada in its adaptation efforts.

 

Chapter 2: Background on Climate Change 

The Committee was presented with evidence that shows our climate is, indeed, changing. One of the main indicators is the global trend of warming temperatures. Much of the scientific evidence was very technical, but it is included in this chapter since it provides important background for later chapters and recommendations:

·        It is accepted that the average surface temperature of the globe has increased about 0.6^oC in the past 100 years, over sea and land. 

·        None of the natural factors affecting climate provides an obvious explanation for this observed global warming. 

·        By now there is sufficient scientific evidence to suggest that the warming trend of the earth observed in the last century is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂). 

·        This warming trend is likely to continue at a rate unprecedented in human history, and it will have consequences at the regional level on temperature, precipitation patterns and, more importantly, the frequency of extreme weather events.

·        Because the warming effect will be amplified closer to the poles, countries such as Canada will be more vulnerable. In fact, some effects are already being felt in the northern part of the country.

 

There are actions that Canada and other countries can take to slow this change.  Essentially, we need to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as CO₂:

·        The Kyoto Protocol binds industrial countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Experts agree, however, that the implementation of the Protocol will not, by itself, curb – let alone reverse – the warming trend. 

·        The use of forests and agricultural soils to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere will only be a temporary measure to help Canada meet its Kyoto commitment; it will have little effect on the overall amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

·        Stabilization of greenhouse gases at levels that avoid dangerous consequences for humanity will entail drastic measures far beyond those required for the Protocol. Hydrogen must become the fuel of the future, replacing fuels such as oil that are associated with emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This transition could be made possible by investing in nuclear and renewable sources of energy.

 

Experts also agree that the climate will take time to respond to the changing quantities of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. By the time we have significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions, the climate will already have warmed and we will have had no choice but to adapt to new climatic conditions:

·        Aside from some initiatives such as Canada’s Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program, which funds research, and the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN), only limited resources have been allocated to adaptation to climate change.

·        There is a need for a long-term commitment to support, fund and monitor progress toward adaptation, and the Government of Canada should take a leadership role on this issue.

 

General Remarks on Chapters 3, 4 and 5 

The Committee received evidence from many researchers – climatologists, soil scientists, resource economists, biologists, entomologists, and others – who provided detailed information about their work on the potential effects of climate change on agriculture, forestry, and water resources, as well as their studies of potential adaptation options. Chapters 3, 4 and 5 focus on the state of knowledge about the potential effects of climate change on these three resources. In order to put the findings into perspective, the following points should be noted:

·        Most of the research on the effects of climate change on agriculture, forests, and water resources uses models designed to study the planet as a whole. Model developers told the Committee that such models are too broad to give an accurate assessment of future implications at a regional level. 

·        Researchers involved in the field of impact and adaptation, however, believe that these models can, indeed, yield some useful results at a smaller scale; but they agree that it remains a challenge to try to downscale findings to local levels.

·        Results from these studies provide scenarios of plausible future events.  They are by no means forecasts of what climate change will bring.

·        The coverage of these studies has been somewhat piecemeal; they do not address the entire diversity of our country.

 

In light of the above-mentioned remarks, it is important that we try to develop greater accuracy and confidence regarding what will happen, and where. It is equally important that we first determine where Canada’s agriculture industry and our forest industry are vulnerable, in order to be able to improve their resilience. 

 

Chapter 3: Agriculture 

Changes in climatic conditions will affect agriculture in three different ways:

·        Changes in average climatic conditions will modify Canada’s agricultural map.  It is generally accepted that higher temperatures, and enhanced CO₂ in the atmosphere, will enable better yields, new crops and a northward extension of agricultural land.  Locally, however, these benefits might be offset by a number of factors, including reduced water availability, limited soil availability in the north, increased soil erosion if droughts and floods become more frequent, increased insect outbreaks, and more vigorous weeds. 

·        All witnesses agreed that changes in the year to year variation in temperature and precipitation will be far more significant for the agricultural sector than changes in the average conditions.  We can expect that climate change will alter the frequency of anomalous years; that is, some extreme conditions will become less frequent, while others will become more frequent.  It was mentioned many times that Canada can expect more frequent and widespread droughts, particularly in the Prairies.  

·        The impact of climate change on the rest of the world will also have implications for Canada’s agricultural sector.  Many prices are determined by world markets, meaning that the economic effect on this sector in Canada will depend also on how Canadian productivity may change relative to that of other countries. 

 

Farmers are already innovative and adapt to various stresses, including variations in weather, trade policies, and commodity prices.  Historically, a range of adaptation options has been available to farmers to cope with various risks and conditions, and these options will continue to help them in the future. They are:

·        technological development, including the development of new crop varieties;

·        farm financial management, including crop insurance;

·        farm production practices, including diversification and irrigation; and

·        government programs, including support programs and taxation.

Technological development and improvements in agricultural practices will have an important role in enabling adaptation to climate change.  But it is crucial that farmers also improve their capacity to deal with the risks that currently exist, in order to enhance their ability to deal with future risk, including those associated with climate change.  Farmers will have to build on their strengths and identify where their farm operations are vulnerable. 

 

Chapter 4: Forests 

Climate change is also likely to affect Canada’s forests in different ways:

·        Researchers are not certain whether Canadian forests will experience increased or decreased productivity as a result of climate change.  On one hand, a longer growing season and increased CO₂ in the atmosphere will encourage tree growth.  On the other hand, increased damage to forests and trees is expected due to winter thaws and extreme weather events (violent winds, for instance), and greater risk of forest fires and insect outbreaks such as the Mountain pine beetle in British Columbia.

·        Researchers also expect to see the temperate forests and the boreal forest move northward as a result of increased temperatures. A number of factors will limit this migration, however, and Canada could potentially lose species and end up with weedy and less vigorous forests.

·        Such impacts of climate change on forests are likely to affect Canadian society and the economy. For instance, socio-economic effects may include changes in timber supply and rent value, changes in land values, loss of forest for recreation, and dislocation of parks and natural areas.

The effects of climate change on forests will require appropriate anticipatory adaptation from the forest sector.  Notwithstanding the uncertainty about the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems over the next decades, several witnesses urged that the Canadian forest industry rapidly apply current knowledge on forest fires, insects and diseases in its long-term planning of forest operations. Current knowledge on forest fires, for example, can be used to plan for harvesting rotation.  

It was also stressed that the uncertain impact of climate change on the Canadian forest industry and on the rural communities that depend on healthy forests for their well-being may represent a good opportunity for all forestry stakeholders to undertake a profound reflection about forest management of the future. 

 

Chapter 5: Water 

The main effect of climate change is likely to be on Canada’s water resources.  While predictions of how precipitation regimes will change are very uncertain, evidence is consistent on the following points:

·        We can expect more variability in precipitation: there will be years that are wetter than normal, but there will be other years that are much drier than normal.  Storms and droughts may occur more often.

·        Adaptation measures will mainly concern engineering and infrastructure – irrigation, water treatment plants, etc. – but also technology to improve water use efficiency.  Those measures will vary locally and will depend on the users – agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.

·        Given the demands for water by agriculture, the forest industry, and households in rural and urban areas, the evidence indicates that water-use conflicts will increase.

·        If water-use conflicts increase, decision-makers will have to determine what uses are appropriate and inappropriate, and where the available water is best allocated. 

 

Chapter 6: Rural Communities  

Rural Canada is an important contributor to the country’s wealth, supplying 15% of the Gross Domestic Product and 40% of Canadian exports. Because it relies largely on natural resource-based industries, rural Canada will be more vulnerable to climate change.  The following points arose from the hearings:

·        Over the past several decades, the population and composition of rural communities in Canada have been changing dramatically, due to migration and structural transformations in agriculture and other resource-based industries.  In 2000, for example, off-farm income represented 56% of the total farm income.

·        The livelihoods of rural Canadians are already stressed by low commodity prices and by trade conflicts such as the softwood lumber dispute, among other things. 

·        Climate change will bring additional stresses, which may aggravate those already affecting rural Canada.

·        Climate change will have significant financial and economic repercussions on natural resource-based industries.  If the financial basis of farming, forestry, and other natural resource-based industries is threatened, so is the viability of rural communities. 

·        Physical infrastructure in some communities will also be challenged by rising sea levels and increased weather-related damage.

·        Social cohesion will be threatened if, among other things, water use conflicts increase.

·        In order to cope with these changes, rural communities will have to start considering climate change in their planning.  A starting point could be to raise their awareness of this issue, notably through participation in C-CIARN workshops.  This stresses the importance of a communication strategy on climate change (chapter 8).

 

Chapter 7: Aboriginal People 

The Committee met with elected representatives from the Metis Nation of Alberta and the Kainai Nation. Representatives from C-CIARN North also provided insights into the situation of the Inuit. The following points were highlighted:

·        The knowledge and life experience of the elders have produced observations that are closely linked with recent scientific findings on the trend of climate change.

·        Indigenous peoples of the North are more sensitive to climate change than non‑indigenous peoples, because their homelands, culture, traditional knowledge, and hunting habitats will be directly affected.

·        Partnerships among scientists, aboriginal Nations, and northern communities have increased in the past two decades, notably in regions where scientific research has been focused.

·        Aboriginal people need better access to programs that would help them adapt to climate change.

·        As Aboriginal people achieve rights to the management of resources and land ownership, their organizations are seeking a more meaningful role in research, outreach action, and international negotiations on climate change.

 

Chapter 8: What Do We Need to Do to Adapt? 

While it is still too early to clearly identify effective adaptation measures that should be taken, there is room for government action. This chapter presents and discusses three areas for proactive action on climate change: research, communication, and government programs.

 

Research

While research on adaptation to climate change is still in its infancy, Canada is at the forefront and Canadian researchers are leading numerous international activities on this issue.  Such research, however, suffers from the following problems:

·        a lack of funding, relative to the funding allocated to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions;

·        a lack of suitably qualified graduate students; and

·        difficulty in securing funding for research that involves many different disciplines.

 

Witnesses suggested various approaches to fostering research:

·        enhance government research capacity;

·        facilitate partnerships between research organizations;

·        create research chairs on adaptation, and graduate student awards; and

·        create a central facility to bring together researchers from various disciplines.

 

Communication

Scientific information is complex by nature, and effective communication has been a common concern at all the public hearings. Three main points emerged from the hearings:

·        It is important not to sensationalize the issue and needlessly scare the public; nevertheless, the Committee would be remiss if it were to ignore the clear message from witnesses that Canada is soon likely to face much greater changes than it has experienced in the last hundred years. 

·        In addition to the conventional view that information must flow from researchers to the industries and communities, it is equally important that the research community learn from producers, the rural population, and Aboriginal people. As a relatively new entity, C-CIARN is beginning to initiate such two-way discussions between researchers and stakeholders.

·        A single, monolithic communications plan may not be appropriate to reach rural Canada. Any communications strategy should use existing networks within rural communities to ensure that current information is effectively distributed.  The capacity for extension services to deliver information to producers and woodlot owners has been severely curtailed over the last 20 to 30 years, and should be restored. 

·        The access to broadband technology is also essential to rural communities to enable rural Canadians to actively search the information by themselves.

 

Government Programs

Current public policies such as taxation, farm programs, and provincial regulations on forest practices may either hinder or encourage adaptation efforts. In order to create a favourable environment that allows farmers and forest operators to adapt, governments should consider the following points:

·        To adapt proactively to climate change, the agriculture and forest industries may require longer-term incentives that would counter the short-term ones provided by markets. 

·        A general goal of government policies should be to encourage the adoption of opportunities to adapt to climate change, or at the very least to avoid preventing the adoption of such opportunities. Therefore, climate change considerations should be incorporated into Canadian agricultural policy, forest management legislation, certification standards for environmentally friendly products, and other policies that are relevant to the well-being of rural communities.  In doing this, we will make our industries, ecosystems, and communities less vulnerable to climatic changes, while also helping them to adapt to other stresses.

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[1] Canadian Farmers At Risk, Report of the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. June 2002. 1^st Session, 37^th Parliament. Available at  /en/Content/SEN/Committee/371/agri/rep/rep10jun02-e.htm.

 

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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION