Proceedings of the Standing Senate Committee on
Foreign Affairs and International Trade
Issue 26 - Evidence - Meeting of May 7, 2015
OTTAWA, Thursday, May 7, 2015
The Standing Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade met this day at 10:35 a.m. to examine such issues as may arise from time to time relating to foreign relations and international trade generally (topic: conflict in Yemen).
Senator A. Raynell Andreychuk (Chair) in the chair.
[English]
The Chair: Honourable senators, the Standing Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade is continuing under our general mandate to examine such issues as may arise from time to time relating to foreign relations and international trade generally.
Today, we are pursuing the topic of the conflict in Yemen. The witnesses before us are, from Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, Carol McQueen, Director, Gulf States Relations Division; Colleen Mapendere, Deputy Director, Gulf States Relations Division; Hibo Robleh, Desk Officer, Kuwait, Oman, Yemen and Bahrain.
As we are not doing an in-depth study, we do from time to time monitor issues and particularly issues of crisis that may have an impact on Canada's role in international multilateral relationships but also bilateral and regional, and, therefore, Yemen has been very pivotal in the security issues and the development issues of that region. We have asked you to give us an update and information from a Canadian perspective as to what you are monitoring and what your assessments are, to the extent that you can, and senators will have questions.
Welcome to the committee. I take it, Ms. McQueen, you will be speaking alone or will the others be assisting only in the questions?
Carol McQueen, Director, Gulf States Relations Division, Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada: They will be assisting in the questions.
Madam Chair and honourable senators, thank you for the invitation to speak to you today to provide an update on the current situation in Yemen.
[Translation]
I am very pleased to be appearing before your committee to make a presentation on Yemen.
[English]
I will give you general background on Yemen. Yemen is the poorest country of the Gulf region and is not a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, a regional political and security organization comprised of the energy rich gulf monarchies Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
It is a small, sparsely populated Arab country divided evenly between the Zaydi Shi'a sect in the north and northwest, and the Shafi'is Sunni sect in the south and southeast. The country has a fractious history of uprisings by various groups, such as rebellions by the Houthis in the north and secessionist militants in the south.
[Translation]
Madam Chair, the Canada-Yemen relations are modest. Canada does not have an embassy in Yemen, though Yemen has had an embassy in Canada since 1990. Bilateral trade is small, with Canadian exports to Yemen totalling $22 million in 2014.
[English]
Madam Chair, in 2011, inspired by the Arab Spring, protestors clashed with security forces in a series of demonstrations, culminating in hundreds of deaths in the country. President Saleh then ceded power at the end of 2011 as part of a deal brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council, and former Vice-President Hadi took office as president after uncontested elections in 2012.
In the fall of 2014, Houthi rebels descended to the capital Sana'a to express their dissatisfaction with the new federal model, claiming it groups their territories into a resource-poor region and will result in their marginalization. After days of demonstrations, the Houthis and the government of Yemen agreed to a peace and national partnership agreement, which was brokered by UN Special Envoy Jamal Benomar. However, the agreement did not hold and tensions built anew.
The most recent crisis started in January 2015 when the Houthi rebels surrounded the presidential palace and the residences of key ministers in the capital Sana'a. This led to President Hadi, Prime Minister Bahah and his cabinet resigning in protest. The Houthis then dissolved Parliament and imposed a new governing structure on Yemen, signalling the end of the ongoing negotiations led by the UN Special Envoy Jamal Benomar.
A few weeks after his house arrest, President Hadi escaped to the southern city of Aden. Tensions escalated as unidentified airplanes that are likely linked to the forces loyal to former President Saleh attacked President Hadi's residence in Aden in March 2015. President Hadi decided to flee and arrived in Saudi Arabia, where he requested a military intervention in Yemen to stop the advances of the Houthi rebels.
On March 25, Saudi Arabia launched Operation Decisive Storm and began a series of air strikes with the help of a coalition made up of Gulf Cooperation Council partners Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Qatar, in addition to Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Sudan. Oman did not participate. The campaign was aimed at key Houthi- controlled military targets. The international community, including Canada, generally supported the Saudi-led military intervention, and the U.S. and U.K. are coordinating with Saudi Arabia and its partners to provide logistical and intelligence support. On March 27, Minister Nicholson released a statement supporting the military action undertaken by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council partners to defend Saudi Arabia's border and protect Yemen's recognized government and to urge the Houthis to end their military actions immediately. The statement made note of Canada's concern with the deteriorating situation in Yemen and urged all parties to return to negotiations.
Iran's increasing and more direct meddling in the conflict in Yemen, through financial and military support to the Houthis, risks opening another front in the regional fault line between Iran and Saudi Arabia, will certainly prolong the crisis and undermines prospects for a negotiated settlement.
After almost a month of daily bombing, the Saudi-led coalition announced the end of Operation Decisive Storm and the start of a new phase codenamed Restoring Hope, whose aim is described as focusing on anti-terrorism, security, humanitarian assistance and on finding a political solution to the crisis. However, since the announcement of this new operation on April 21, the air strike campaign has continued.
[Translation]
Yemen remains one of the largest safe havens in the Middle East for Islamic militants, including the Yemeni branch of al Qaeda, AQAP. Since the Saudi military actions began, AQAP has gained a substantial ability to operate in Yemen, given the instability and the fact that international attention is diverted to containing the Houthi rebels.
[English]
Saudi Arabia's military intervention has alarmed international aid organizations due to the high civilian casualties from the air strikes and clashes on the ground. Since March 19, 2015, conservative estimates indicate that over 1,000 people have been killed, some 4,300 injured and over 150,000 displaced. The international community is increasingly concerned by the humanitarian crisis. On April 30, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon issued a statement calling for a ceasefire, a humanitarian pause, and urging all parties to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure and to allow urgently needed and safe humanitarian access. On April 10, Minister Paradis announced $11.5 million to support emergency relief efforts under way by various experienced humanitarian organizations in Yemen.
In closing, Madam Chair, let me emphasize that only a return to the negotiating table will enable a lasting solution to the crisis in Yemen. Canada calls upon the Houthis to end their military actions and supports efforts by the UN and our allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council to bring all the parties together to find a peaceful solution to the current impasse. Most importantly, Canada stands in solidarity with the people of Yemen during this difficult time.
[Translation]
Madam Chair and honorable senators, I want to thank you for your time and attention. I am available to answer your questions or provide more information.
Thank you.
[English]
The Chair: Thank you, Ms. McQueen. Just a comment and perhaps you can reply. Yemen was a result of a lot of international political discussions, way back when, to create Yemen out of two countries. A lot of the disputes were unresolved at that time and have continued to fester.
To what extent is the conflict today a result of those unresolved issues between the varying factions, and to what extent is the conflict a result of new emerging issues that have polarized Saudi Arabia and Iran, in other words, today's political dynamics?
Ms. McQueen: I would say that it is a combination of both. Yes, some of the underlying problems in the country that have been there from the beginning — secessionist movements in the South, the fact that it is a very tribal country with many different factions — were all things that made Yemen quite a complicated state to bring together as a unified state, and all of those factors remain today.
Saudi Arabia has also been involved in previous conflicts with Yemen and certainly the Houthi aspect, and there have been previous wars between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Those are things that complicate the current dynamic.
Obviously, the Saudi Arabia and Iran tensions are something that are perhaps a little bit newer historically, and they also now complicate resolution of the conflict.
Senator Ataullahjan: I have a couple of questions. I was reading an article from the New York Times in which U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that the humanitarian crisis in Yemen was growing more dire by the day and discussed a possible ceasefire so that aid could reach the region.
Do you think a ceasefire at this stage is feasible? We are seeing fuel shortages. The airports are being bombed. It is making it very difficult for aid agencies to get through.
Ms. McQueen: Thank you for the question. Yes, we have heard this late-breaking news that Secretary of State Kerry certainly has convinced Saudi Arabia to allow a pause for a humanitarian delivery of aid. We are certainly supportive of that. We recognize that the humanitarian situation in the country is difficult.
It is not for me to say how things will go, but it is a very difficult situation on the ground. The big challenge, I think, will be getting all of the factions on the ground to agree to that ceasefire. That's all I can say at this time.
Senator Ataullahjan: You have mentioned that Oman hasn't sided with Saudi Arabia in this. My impression, talking to some of the parliamentarians from Oman, is that maybe they would be playing a mediating role, maybe they would get them to come to the table and talk. I guess that hasn't happened. We have seen where countries like Pakistan, which were asked by Saudi Arabia to come and be a part of the fighting force, decided not to. The Parliament said not to, despite the close relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
We have also heard about the role that al Qaeda and ISIL have played in this conflict. Is there any truth to the rumours that, if anything, al Qaeda has been strengthened or has gained areas of influence due to the bombing that is going on?
Ms. McQueen: Yes, as you know, Oman plays quite an interesting role in the Gulf because it manages to maintain good relations both with Iran and Saudi Arabia and sometimes has been able to broker conversations or facilitate things. Oman has certainly stepped forward to say that it would be willing to host negotiations but, so far, our understanding is that at the current time there may be two opportunities that are being looked at: one is negotiations to take place in Riyadh, in May; another possibility might be through the UN, to do something perhaps further afield. So I don't believe that there are any current discussions with Oman brokering a ceasefire.
On the subject of al Qaeda, yes, absolutely — our information is that the current instability has, in fact, enabled al Qaeda to gain some momentum. They have seized a town on the coast of the Red Sea and they have also captured some military equipment that was abandoned and so on. That is certainly something that we are watching carefully and is very worrisome.
Senator Wells: Thank you, panel, for appearing before us today. I wanted to ask about the government of the Houthis now. It seems that they don't have broad support within the country. Are they aligned in any way with terrorist groups that operate in Yemen?
Ms. McQueen: The Houthis are currently collaborating with former President Saleh. It is difficult to ascertain the extent of their support in the country. There are areas in the north where they are heavily supported.
Unfortunately, President Hadi is not necessarily viewed as a very popular figure in Yemen, so the population, I think, may be looking for a way out of the problem, but don't necessarily know which way to go.
The Houthis actually had been one of the factions that were opposing al Qaeda. We don't have any information currently about collaboration. Colleen, do you have any information? No.
Senator Wells: Who is the closest ally to the Houthi government? Would it be Iran?
Ms. McQueen: I would say in the current context given that they have been isolated, yes, Iran is their closest ally.
Senator Wells: What would you say are the ramifications of having your closest ally, Iran, which is against much of what the west wants and the prospects for any intervention for, I won't even say peace, but a calmer state within Yemen?
Ms. McQueen: It is certainly very worrisome to us to see that Iran has stepped up its military assistance and support to the Houthis. This is something very worrisome and also shows the extent to which Iran is often willing to meddle in another country's conflicts. So it is something that we feel will likely make the conflict more difficult to resolve.
Senator Eaton: I will continue on with what Senator Wells started. Is Yemen really the battleground between Iran and Saudi Arabia to pick up the void of that big empty space called Iraq? Is it really not a small battleground for Shia against moderate Sunni? Because you get into the Salafists, who are radical Sunni and it seems to me that most of Saudi is moderate Sunni, except for the Salafist, Wahhabist elements. Is Yemen the little battleground for the powers to see who is going to take over the leadership of the Middle East?
Ms. McQueen: My understanding of Yemen is that the historical struggles that have taken place in that country have not been sectarian, that they're more tribal or political about resources and so on. For example, we have met with the Yemeni Charge to Canada and other Yemenis who speak about the Shiites and Sunnis actually going to the same mosques in Yemen. So the problem is because of the sectarian fault line that runs between Saudi and Iran. Particularly Iran will look to take advantage of this type of situation to worsen it, but at its heart the Yemeni conflict was not a sectarian conflict.
Senator Eaton: It does boil down to the control of the Gulf, doesn't it, which is fairly important? So if the Houthis win, we can take it that Iran would effectively have control of the Gulf as opposed to Yemen and Saudi Arabia?
Ms. McQueen: Well, certainly Canada is opposed to the Houthis taking control of Yemen. We think there needs to be a negotiated settlement involving all of the parties and restoring a legitimate government to Yemen. But yes, it would be worrisome if the Houthis gained control of the country.
Senator Eaton: If you are John Kerry and other people are calling for a ceasefire and political settlement, then wouldn't you have to get not only Saudi Arabia, but Iran at the table? Aren't they the people who are feeding arms to the various tribes and supporting them?
Ms. McQueen: I think The New York Times article that was referred to earlier also mentions that Kerry will be meeting Zarif on Friday for ongoing nuclear negotiations and they may discuss Yemen as well at that time. Other than that, I'm not able to add anything more.
Senator Demers: Thank you for a great presentation. There are great questions. It is so interesting. I am going to stay away from some of the questions. Could you negotiate with those people? Is it possible? It seems there's conflict after conflict. Mr. Kerry is there. We understand Canada's role in that. Do you feel that you could sit down and negotiate a political solution to Yemen? I don't know. I'm not negative, but it just seems that you just can't talk to these people. I hope the question makes sense, but you can't seem to really be able to sit down and have a solution. What is your thinking on that? A lot of people are suffering with what is going on.
Ms. McQueen: Thank you for the question. I'm also responsible for covering Iraq and so I am aware there are so many conflicts in the Middle East that seem intractable and difficult. For all of them, one of the things that we say is that for a long-term solution, you need a politically negotiated settlement. Diplomacy is the only way although it is very difficult. I think in the case of Yemen, at least, there has been a precedent under the UN where they managed to bring the parties together and to talk and managed to have a period where they were trying to all work together. Even though it is very difficult, one has to try.
The Chair: Before I go to a second round, touching on the issues in Yemen, we are seeing it as a conflict of Yemen and Saudi Arabia. But if you stand on the shores of Africa you can almost see Yemen from Djibouti, the movement of people going there, nefarious goods and criminality moves back and forth on small little boats. So there might be another chaotic immigration problem and destabilization of the Gulf region for transportation, business and international concerns.
To what extent are those factors known and being negotiated? Or are we only looking at it as an internal issue of a small country? It is an isolated issue with its historic problems, but it seems it is a pivotal point. If you look on a map, it controls a lot of commerce. If it's in chaos, it creates a greater problems. The ripple effect is huge.
If you've been to Djibouti, Sudan and Egypt, you know how the transfer of goods, good and bad, occurs there. So it gives me great concern if Yemen isn't stable. That's part of the reason they were trying to put the country together in the first place, namely, to get the stability for all the international commerce going through there.
Ms. McQueen: I can't speak to the African questions, because I'm not in any way responsible for that. But I think the problem you are addressing is something that the international community — Canada and other countries in the region — realizes is that the problem in Yemen is a major threat to regional security. That's also one of the reasons why Saudi Arabia was effective in garnering the support of Egypt and other critical countries — because they realize, yes, that bit of water there is critical to international trade.
We also understand that the coalition and the U.S. have mounted a naval blockade and are patrolling those waters, most certainly to try to prevent a spillover of the conflict and to protect those waterways.
Senator Cordy: I'm following up on Senator Demers's question. On April 25, the UN appointed a new envoy for Yemen; the former envoy stepped down. What was the reason the former envoy stepped down? Was his time over, or was it frustration?
Ms. McQueen: I think there was a feeling that the former envoy had done everything he could, that he had been in the role for a number of years and had been successful in the early part of bringing everyone together but, as the conflict worsened, he was becoming less effective. So there was a decision by the UN to replace him.
The new special envoy, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, is someone who knows Yemen well and was the former UNDP country manager for Yemen. He already knows some of the players, so we are hopeful that could be useful.
Senator Cordy: So it's a new face and a new start.
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have announced their five-day ceasefire. I think they said it will start "soon,'' but I'm not sure when "soon'' will be. There would be no bombings or shooting, so they could facilitate aid getting to people.
Since they have said it's starting soon and not immediately, what are the chances that we will have a ceasefire so that help can arrive? There are 300,000 people who have been displaced from their homes and a number of people who have been killed. The conditions are desperate. The aid that countries are sending is not reaching them; they're just sitting at airports or ports.
What are the chances that the ceasefire will take place fairly soon, as they said?
Ms. McQueen: I'm afraid that I can't answer that question. Mr. Kerry has worked so hard to achieve this because he and the international community are aware of the terrible humanitarian situation. Let us hope it works because I agree that they need to receive more aid and fuel and so on, but I can't comment on whether it will happen. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
Senator Cordy: Mr. Kerry probably can't answer that question either, so that's a fair answer you gave.
Senator Beyak: Thank you for your presentation, Ms. McQueen. You're very informed and up to date on the Middle East. I'm impressed with your knowledge. I'm replacing another senator on the committee today, so I don't know if your department or the committee has discussed this. I agree with you that the negotiation is always the best route to go. But when the Ayatollah of Iran has stated publicly, recently and often that his only goal is to wipe us off the face of the Earth, as well as Israel, how do you start negotiations with someone like that?
Ms. McQueen: It's a very good question. I'm also responsible for Iran, as it happens. For example, in the conflict in Iraq, Iran is not part of the anti-ISIL coalition, et cetera, precisely for that reason. That is why I suspect that, yes, Iran is a very problematic player and likely will not formally be included in negotiations.
Senator Ataullahjan: Yemen's ambassador asked the UN yesterday that the UN authorize the use of foreign ground forces to drive back the Houthis. Has there been a response to this by the UN? The perception is that you cannot win a war until you have boots on the ground. Could this letter provide legal cover for such a move?
Ms. McQueen: I'm sorry. That's a very new development, and we're aware of it. We saw the statements coming out of Yemen and also a statement by Saudi Arabia. But we haven't had time to analyze that or look at that carefully, so I'm afraid I can't answer anything on that.
Senator Ataullahjan: Iran, too, has asked the UN for a ceasefire because of the Saudi airstrikes. I guess the situation is changing and evolving every day, so it's hard to answer some questions. Thank you.
The Chair: There is a humanitarian issue; it's somewhat different from the humanitarian issues elsewhere. To what extent are we analyzing what kind of assistance we would give? We're very active in UNHCR and we're very active with UNICEF. We also sit on the directives. The population and the cultural differences in Yemen, and the support systems are a very different situation. What would we be looking at? Simply survival — food — or are we looking at education quality, et cetera?
Ms. McQueen: As I mentioned in my presentation, Minister Paradis recently announced this $11.5 million in humanitarian assistance to Yemen, recognizing how difficult the situation was. But I think we better take that specific question back to our colleagues and, if we can, we can maybe provide something on that later.
The Chair: There appear to be no other questions, so thank you very much for your perspectives and update on a very serious situation. We appreciate the briefing we received today.
Senators, we will not have meetings next week due to trying to get three reports out of this committee in a timely fashion. The steering committee will be working hard, and the committee will have a bit of a reprieve so that you will be in a position to start receiving these reports and so we can deal with them efficiently before we rise for the summer. That is just a heads-up so you can change your schedules.
(The committee adjourned.)