Transcripts & Minutes - Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry (37th Parliament, 2nd Session)

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CLIMATE CHANGE: WE ARE AT RISK

Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry

FINAL REPORT

The Honourable Donald Oliver, Q.C.,Chair
The Honourable John Wiebe, Deputy Chair

November 2003

MEMBERSHIP

THE STANDING SENATE COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY

The Honourable Senators

Liberals

*Sharon Carstairs, P.C. (or Robichaud, P.C.)
Thelma Chalifoux
Joseph Day, P. Eng
Joyce Fairbairn, P.C.
Elizabeth Hubley
Laurier L. LaPierre
Pierrette Ringuette
John (Jack) Wiebe (Deputy Chair)

Conservatives

Leonard Gustafson
Marjory LeBreton
*John Lynch-Staunton, P.C. (or Kinsella)
Donald Oliver, Q.C.(Chair)
David Tkachuk

(*Ex officio members)

Acting Clerk of the Committee
Keli Hogan

Analysts from the Research Branch, Library of Parliament
Frédéric Forge
Lorie Srivastava
Jean-Luc Bourdages

Note: The Honourable Senators Raynell Andreychuk; Pat Carney; Jane Cordy; Marisa Ferretti Barth; Joan Fraser; Jean Lapointe; Shirley Maheu; Frank Mahovlich; Lorna Milne; Wilfred P. Moore and David P. Smith also served on the Committee.

ORDER OF REFERENCE

Extract of the Journals of the Senate, Thursday, October 31, 2002:

The Honourable Senator Wiebe moved, seconded by the Honourable Senator Chalifoux:

That the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry be authorized to examine the impact of climate change on Canada’s agriculture, forests and rural communities and the potential adaptation options focusing on primary production, practices, technologies, ecosystems and other related areas;

That the papers and evidence received and taken on the subject and the work accomplished by the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry during the First Session of the Thirty-Seventh Parliament be referred to the Committee and;

That the Committee submit its final report no later than December 31, 2003.

The question being put on the motion, it was adopted.

Paul C. Bélisle
Clerk of the Senate

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD

LIST OF RECOMMENDATIONS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
    The Saguenay Flood of 1996
    The Red River Flood of 1997
    The Ice Storm of 1998
    Droughts Since 1999
    Summer 2003
    What is Climate?
    Why is Climate Change Important?
    Focus on Adaptation

CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND ON CLIMATE CHANGE
    A. Our Climate is Changing…
    B. …And the Changes Will Affect Us
    C. The Solution is to Reduce Emissions…
        1. The Kyoto Protocol
        2. The Emissions Trading System
        3. The Decarbonization of Global Energy Systems
    D. ….And Adapt to the Effects
    Summary

CHAPTER 3: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE: WHAT DO WE KNOW?
    A. Biophysical Effects of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture
    B. Economics Effects of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture
    C. Adaptation Options for Agriculture
    Summary

CHAPTER 4: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FORESTS: WHAT DO WE KNOW?
    A. Biophysical Effects of Climate Change on Canada's Forests
    B. Adaptation Options for Forestry
    Summary

CHAPTER 5: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER
    A. Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources
    B. Water Stresses on Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Communities
    C. Adaptation Strategies For Water Resources
    Summary

CHAPTER 6: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RURAL COMMUNITIES
Summary

CHAPTER 7: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ABORIGINAL PEOPLE
Summary

CHAPTER 8: WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO TO ADAPT?
    A. Research
        1. The Need for Integrated Research
        2. Areas of Research
        3. Fostering Research
        Summary
    B. Communication
        1. A Clear Message at the Right Time
        2. A National Communication Strategy
        Summary
    C. Government Policies and Programs
        1. Specific programs to Encourage Adaptation
        2. Incorporation Climate Change into Existing Programs and Policies
        Summary

CHAPTER 9: CONCLUSION - LESSONS LEARNED

APPENDIX A: WITNESS LIST

APPENDIX B: OTHER WRITTEN SUBMISSIONS RECEIVED

APPENDIX C: BIOGRAPHIES OF MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

AAFC Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

APF Agriculture Policy Framework

C-CIARN Canadian Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Research Network

CCAF Climate Change Action Fund

CCPC Climate Change Plan for Canada

CFA Canadian Federation of Agriculture

CFS Canadian Forest Service

CO₂ Carbon dioxide

GHG Greenhouse gas

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

N₂0 Nitrous oxide

PARC Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative

PFRA Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration

WISE Water Institute for Semi-arid Ecosystems

FOREWORD

From November 2002 to May 2003, the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry examined the effects of climate change on Canada’s agricultural and forestry sectors and rural communities. This study is a direct result of the Committee’s previous study, Canadian Farmers at Risk.[1] As part of that study, the Committee travelled to the Maritimes to hear from farmers about their concerns. Farmers repeatedly expressed apprehension about changes in climate and were unsure as to how they could cope with – or adapt to – apparently new climate scenarios.

After identifying the leading researchers in the field of climate change and adaptation in Canada and abroad, the Committee heard from witnesses at the forefront in this area from universities, research centres, and governments across Canada as well as internationally. The Committee took a country-wide approach and actively sought the views of farmer organizations, rural associations, ecotourism groups, and environmental and conservation organizations from all regions of Canada. The Committee held hearings in Ottawa and travelled to Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia (see the Appendix for a complete list of witnesses). Throughout the hearings, the Committee was especially interested in learning about effective adaptation strategies for Canadians.

Farmers, forest operators and rural communities are already facing and adapting to a wide range of risks and opportunities that arise from changes in market conditions, domestic regulations, trade policies, technology, and other factors. This study thus extends the work presented in the Committee’s last report, Canadian Farmers at Risk, which examined short- and long-term issues affecting the health of Canada’s agricultural and agri-food industry.

The Committee tabled an interim report in June 2003. The Committee then returned to the same witnesses and invited them to propose relevant and realistic recommendations that could help Canadians in rural areas and also, where applicable, in urban areas to adapt to climate change. This report expresses the views and concerns of the various witnesses, and provide specific recommendations to help ensure that Canada successfully responds and adapts to climate change, thereby assuring the continued prosperity of our agriculture and forestry sectors and our rural communities.

Source: Donald Lemmen, brief submitted to the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, Ottawa, October 7, 2003.

Throughout the human history, the earth’s global temperature has remained relatively stable. The predicted increase of 1.4^oC in the earth’s average temperature over the next 100 years would be unprecedented in the last 10,000 years.

LIST OF RECOMMENDATIONS

Recommendation 1: the Government of Canada assume a leadership role and coordinate climate change impacts and adaptation efforts in Canada to ensure that all stakeholders remain engaged in the ongoing process of adaptation to climate change.

Recommendation 2: funding and allocation of resources towards climate change impacts and adaptation research be increased substantially. The funding level should at least match that expended on research towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing sequestration. Those additional resources should be made accessible to governments and non-government scientists and institutions to develop partnership on an integrated research basis.

Recommendation 3: research on water be made a national priority, with a special focus on “water supply and demand” scenarios, water management and planning at the local level, and adaptation options including infrastructures.

Recommendation 4: the role and resources available to Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN) be expanded and increased, such that the organization provides a more visible face both to the Canadian public, particularly the young people, and to all facets of Canadian society, and to facilitate:

·    the development of cooperative climate change impacts and adaptation research projects,

·    on-the-ground operational trials, and

·    the communication of research results through workshop, seminars, discussion forum, newsletters, websites, and other education and awareness programs.

Recommendation 5: the Government of Canada develop and quickly implement an education and communication strategy to inform Canadians on the risks and challenges associated with climate change and its impacts on forests, agriculture, water, ecosystems, and rural communities. Such a strategy should include the revitalization of extension services and use existing networks within rural communities to ensure that current information is effectively distributed.

Recommendation 6: a realistic safety net for the long term be designed to incorporate risks associated with climate change in order to allow the farming community to take advantage of possible opportunities that will arise from climate change.

Recommendation 7: a process of systematic review of existing and new programs and policies be implemented to assess whether climate change risks and opportunities are being properly considered. As part of this review, a ministerial roundtable should be held every two years and a report tabled in each House of Parliament on the progress made towards the consideration of climate change risks within federal policies and programs.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Chapter 1: Introduction

The Saguenay flood of 1996, the Red River flood of 1997, and the 1998 ice storm dominated the lives of several million Canadians and resulted in unprecedented numbers of weather-related insurance claims. Forest fires that ravaged much of Western Canada during the summer 2003 were associated with an unusual succession of dry years including the driest year in 104 years of record at Kelowna. Weather affects our daily lives, sometimes dramatically, as illustrated by these recent extreme weather events. Climate is different from weather: climate refers to average meteorological conditions – temperature, precipitation, and wind patterns, amongst other variables. But climate, too, can change, although the changes are apparent only over long periods of time.

Historically, changes in climate have occurred at a slow enough pace that humanity has been able to adapt to them without major disruptions. There is strong evidence, however, that climate change will accelerate during the coming century at rates beyond our historical ability to adapt. The predicted impacts will include not only more frequent extreme weather events, but also long-term environmental shifts that will profoundly affect economies and lifestyles around the world. For example, the main effect of climate change is likely to be on Canada’s water resources.

During the course of its last study, the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry heard much evidence from farmers across Canada about the 2001 drought, and how badly it had affected them. How will Canadians cope if such droughts occur more frequently in areas where before they were exceptional incidents? From November 2002 to May 2003, the Committee studied the effects of climate change on Canada’s agriculture, forests, and rural communities, with an emphasis on how these can best adapt to a changing climate. This summary highlights the Committee’s findings. The overview of chapter 2 provides some background on the issue of climate change, while the overviews of chapters 3 to 7 summarize the research and evidence gathered by the Committee on the potential effects of climate change on agriculture, forests, water, rural communities and Aboriginal people. Chapter 8 identifies areas for government action to help rural Canada in its adaptation efforts.

Chapter 2: Background on Climate Change

The Committee was presented with evidence that shows our climate is, indeed, changing. One of the main indicators is the global trend of warming temperatures. Much of the scientific evidence was very technical, but it is included in this chapter since it provides important background for later chapters and recommendations:

·        It is accepted that the average surface temperature of the globe has increased about 0.6^oC in the past 100 years, over sea and land.

·        None of the natural factors affecting climate provides an obvious explanation for this observed global warming.

·        By now there is sufficient scientific evidence to suggest that the warming trend of the earth observed in the last century is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂).

·        This warming trend is likely to continue at a rate unprecedented in human history, and it will have consequences at the regional level on temperature, precipitation patterns and, more importantly, the frequency of extreme weather events.

·        Because the warming effect will be amplified closer to the poles, countries such as Canada will be more vulnerable. In fact, some effects are already being felt in the northern part of the country.

There are actions that Canada and other countries can take to slow this change. Essentially, we need to reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as CO₂:

·        The Kyoto Protocol binds industrial countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Experts agree, however, that the implementation of the Protocol will not, by itself, curb – let alone reverse – the warming trend.

·        The use of forests and agricultural soils to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere will only be a temporary measure to help Canada meet its Kyoto commitment; it will have little effect on the overall amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

·        Stabilization of greenhouse gases at levels that avoid dangerous consequences for humanity will entail drastic measures far beyond those required for the Protocol. Hydrogen must become the fuel of the future, replacing fuels such as oil that are associated with emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This transition could be made possible by investing in nuclear and renewable sources of energy.

Experts also agree that the climate will take time to respond to the changing quantities of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. By the time we have significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions, the climate will already have warmed and we will have had no choice but to adapt to new climatic conditions:

Aside from some initiatives such as Canada’s Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program, which funds research, the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN), and research capacity building, only limited resources have been allocated to adaptation to climate change.
There is a need for a long-term commitment to support, fund and monitor progress toward adaptation, and the Government of Canada should take a leadership role on this issue.

General Remarks on Chapters 3, 4 and 5

The Committee received evidence from many researchers – climatologists, soil scientists, resource economists, biologists, entomologists, and others – who provided detailed information about their work on the potential effects of climate change on agriculture, forestry, and water resources, as well as their studies of potential adaptation options. Chapters 3, 4 and 5 focus on the state of knowledge about the potential effects of climate change on these three resources. In order to put the findings into perspective, the following points should be noted:

·        Most of the research on the effects of climate change on agriculture, forests, and water resources uses output from climate models designed to study the planet as a whole. Model developers told the Committee that such models are too broad to give an accurate assessment of future implications at a regional level.

·        Researchers involved in the field of impact and adaptation, however, believe that these models can, indeed, yield some useful results at a smaller scale; but they agree that it remains a challenge to try to downscale findings to local levels.

·        Results from these studies provide scenarios of plausible future events. They are by no means forecasts of what climate change will bring.

·        The coverage of these studies has been somewhat piecemeal; they do not address the entire diversity of our country.

In light of the above-mentioned remarks, it is important that we try to develop greater accuracy and confidence regarding what will happen, and where. It is equally important that we first determine where Canada’s agriculture industry and our forest industry are vulnerable, in order to be able to improve their resilience.

Chapter 3: Agriculture

Changes in climatic conditions will affect agriculture in three different ways:

·        Changes in average climatic conditions will modify Canada’s agricultural map. It is generally accepted that higher temperatures, and enhanced CO₂ in the atmosphere, will enable better yields, new crops and a northward extension of agricultural land. Locally, however, these benefits might be offset by a number of factors, including reduced water availability, limited soil availability in the north, increased soil erosion if droughts and floods become more frequent, increased insect outbreaks, and more vigorous weeds.

·        All witnesses agreed that changes in the year to year variation in temperature and precipitation will be far more significant for the agricultural sector than changes in the average conditions. We can expect that climate change will alter the frequency of anomalous years; that is, some extreme conditions will become less frequent, while others will become more frequent. It was mentioned many times that Canada can expect more frequent and widespread droughts, particularly in the Prairies.

·        The impact of climate change on the rest of the world will also have implications for Canada’s agricultural sector. Many prices are determined by world markets, meaning that the economic effect on this sector in Canada will depend also on how Canadian productivity may change relative to that of other countries.

Farmers are already innovative and adapt to various stresses, including variations in weather, trade policies, and commodity prices. Historically, a range of adaptation options has been available to farmers to cope with various risks and conditions, and these options will continue to help them in the future. They are:

·        technological development, including the development of new crop varieties;

·        farm financial management, including crop insurance;

·        farm production practices, including diversification and irrigation; and

·        government programs, including support programs and taxation.

Technological development and improvements in agricultural practices will have an important role in enabling adaptation to climate change. But it is crucial that farmers also improve their capacity to deal with the risks that currently exist, in order to enhance their ability to deal with future risk, including those associated with climate change. Farmers will have to build on their strengths and identify where their farm operations are vulnerable.

Chapter 4: Forests

Climate change is also likely to affect Canada’s forests in different ways:

·        Researchers are not certain whether Canadian forests will experience increased or decreased productivity as a result of climate change. On one hand, a longer growing season and increased CO₂ in the atmosphere will encourage tree growth. On the other hand, increased damage to forests and trees is expected due to winter thaws and extreme weather events (violent winds, for instance), and greater risk of forest fires, diseases, and insect outbreaks such as the Mountain pine beetle in British Columbia.

·        Researchers also expect to see the temperate forests and the boreal forest move northward as a result of increased temperatures. A number of factors will limit this migration, however, and Canada could potentially lose species and end up with weedy and less vigorous forests.

·        Such impacts of climate change on forests are likely to affect Canadian society and the economy. For instance, socio-economic effects may include changes in timber supply and rent value, changes in land values, loss of forest for recreation, and dislocation of parks and natural areas.

The effects of climate change on forests will require appropriate anticipatory adaptation from the forest sector. Notwithstanding the uncertainty about the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems over the next decades, several witnesses urged that the Canadian forest industry rapidly apply current knowledge on forest fires, insects and diseases in its long-term planning of forest operations. Currently, knowledge on forest fires, for example, can be used to plan harvesting strategies that will reduce the negative impacts of climate change.

It was also stressed that the uncertain impact of climate change on the Canadian forest industry and on the rural communities that depend on healthy forests for their well-being may represent a good opportunity for all forestry stakeholders to undertake a profound reflection about forest management of the future.

Chapter 5: Water

The main effect of climate change is likely to be on Canada’s water resources. While predictions of how precipitation regimes will change are very uncertain, evidence is consistent on the following points:

·        We can expect more variability in precipitation: there will be years that are wetter than normal, but there will be other years that are much drier than normal. Storms and droughts may occur more often.

·        Adaptation measures will mainly concern engineering and infrastructure – irrigation, water treatment plants, etc. – but also technology to improve water use efficiency. Those measures will vary locally and will depend on the users – agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.

·        Given the demands for water by agriculture, the forest industry, and households in rural and urban areas, the evidence indicates that water-use conflicts will increase.

·        If water-use conflicts increase, decision-makers will have to determine what uses are appropriate and inappropriate, and where the available water is best allocated.

Chapter 6: Rural Communities

Rural Canada is an important contributor to the country’s wealth, supplying 15% of the Gross Domestic Product and 40% of Canadian exports. Because it relies largely on natural resource-based industries, rural Canada will be more vulnerable to climate change. The following points arose from the hearings:

·        Over the past several decades, the population and composition of rural communities in Canada have been changing dramatically, due to migration and structural transformations in agriculture and other resource-based industries. In 2000, for example, off-farm income represented 56% of the total farm income.

·        The livelihoods of rural Canadians are already stressed by low commodity prices and by trade conflicts such as the softwood lumber dispute, among other things.

·        Climate change will bring additional stresses, which may aggravate those already affecting rural Canada.

·        Climate change will have significant financial and economic repercussions on natural resource-based industries. If the financial basis of farming, forestry, and other natural resource-based industries is threatened, so is the viability of rural communities.

·        Physical infrastructure in some communities will also be challenged by rising sea levels and increased weather-related damage.

·        Social cohesion will be threatened if, among other things, water use conflicts increase.

·        In order to cope with these changes, rural communities will have to start considering climate change in their planning. A starting point could be to raise their awareness of this issue, notably through participation in C-CIARN workshops. This stresses the importance of a communication strategy on climate change (chapter 8).

Chapter 7: Aboriginal People

The Committee met with elected representatives from the Metis Nation of Alberta and the Kainai Nation. Representatives from C-CIARN North also provided insights into the situation of the Inuit. The following points were highlighted:

·        The knowledge and life experience of the elders have produced observations that are closely linked with recent scientific findings on the trend of climate change.

·        Indigenous peoples of the North are more sensitive to climate change than non‑indigenous peoples, because their homelands, culture, traditional knowledge, and hunting habitats will be directly affected.

·        Partnerships among scientists, aboriginal Nations, and northern communities have increased in the past two decades, notably in regions where scientific research has been focused.

·        Aboriginal people need better access to programs that would help them adapt to climate change.

·        As Aboriginal people achieve rights to the management of resources and land ownership, their organizations are seeking a more meaningful role in research, outreach action, and international negotiations on climate change.

Chapter 8: What Do We Need to Do to Adapt?

While it is still too early to clearly identify effective adaptation measures that should be taken, there is room for government action. This chapter presents and discusses three areas for proactive action on climate change: research, communication, and government programs.

Research

While research on adaptation to climate change is still in its infancy, Canada is at the forefront and Canadian researchers are leading numerous international activities on this issue. Such research, however, suffers from the following problems:

·        a lack of funding, relative to the funding allocated to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions;

·        a lack of suitably qualified graduate students; and

·        difficulty in securing funding for research that involves many different disciplines.

Witnesses suggested various approaches to fostering research:

·        enhance government research capacity;

·        facilitate partnerships between research organizations;

·        create research chairs on adaptation, and graduate student awards; and

·        create a central facility to bring together researchers from various disciplines.

Communication

Scientific information is complex by nature, and effective communication has been a common concern at all the public hearings. Three main points emerged from the hearings:

·        It is important not to sensationalize the issue and needlessly scare the public; nevertheless, the Committee would be remiss if it were to ignore the clear message from witnesses that Canada is soon likely to face much greater changes than it has experienced in the last hundred years.

·        In addition to the conventional view that information must flow from researchers to the industries and communities, it is equally important that the research community learn from producers, the rural population, and Aboriginal people. As a relatively new entity, C-CIARN is beginning to initiate such two-way discussions between researchers and stakeholders.

·        A single, monolithic communications plan may not be appropriate to reach rural Canada. Any communications strategy should use existing networks within rural communities to ensure that current information is effectively distributed. The capacity for extension services to deliver information to producers and woodlot owners has been severely curtailed over the last 20 to 30 years, and should be restored.

·        The access to broadband technology is also essential to rural communities to enable rural Canadians to actively search the information by themselves.

Government Programs

Current public policies such as taxation, farm programs, and provincial regulations on forest practices may either hinder or encourage adaptation efforts. In order to create a favourable environment that allows farmers and forest operators to adapt, governments should consider the following points:

· To adapt proactively to climate change, the agriculture and forest industries may require longer-term incentives that would counter the short-term ones provided by markets.

· A general goal of government policies should be to encourage the adoption of opportunities to adapt to climate change, or at the very least to avoid preventing the adoption of such opportunities. Therefore, climate change considerations should be incorporated into Canadian agricultural policy, forest management legislation, certification standards for environmentally friendly products, and other policies that are relevant to the well-being of rural communities. In doing this, we will make our industries, ecosystems, and communities less vulnerable to climatic changes, while also helping them to adapt to other stresses.

[1] Canadian Farmers At Risk, Report of the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. June 2002. 1^st Session, 37^th Parliament. Available at /en/Content/SEN/Committee/371/agri/rep/rep10jun02-e.

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